Will AI Replace Most Jobs?

Predicting the course of technological progress is extremely difficult. Just because worries about human obsolescence ultimately turned out to be misplaced in the Industrial Revolution doesn’t mean that the same happy result must necessarily prevail this time around.

So the persistent question about artificial intelligence, or “robots” in common parlance, is whether they will make human workers obsolete.

Recent rapid progress in machine learning, a very powerful and flexible statistical prediction technique, has raised worries that machines will soon be able to outperform humans at any conceivable task.

Already, occupations that employ very large numbers of Americans, such as commercial trucking or taxi drivers, are under threat. And some specialised jobs in accounting, law and finance.

Workers displaced by machine learning may be able to find new, even more valuable things to do, as happened when industrial technology displaced craft manufacturers over a century ago, or they may not, and even if they do, getting there may involve a long and bumpy road.

So far, the best known study seems to be a 2017 paper by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo of MIT. Acemoglu and Restrepo find that between 1990 and 2007, places with more robots lost more jobs and saw lower wages.

Much of the press has picked up on this study, and taken it as evidence that automation really is bad for workers.

But there are big caveats to Acemoglu and Restrepo’s paper. The kind of robots they look at constitute only a small fraction of the automation technologies being deployed across the world today. Economists from the Economic Policy Institute looked closely at Acemoglu and Restrepo’s results and found that investment in computers is associated with job gains rather than losses.

An accurate picture requires a very general definition of automation. Economists Katja Mann and Lukas Puttmann of the University of Bonn have a new paper in which they observe the march of automation-related technology by looking at patent records.

The authors use text algorithms to classify patents into automation patents and others, using their broad definition of “a device that carries out a process independently.” This includes things like automated taco machines and hair dye applicators, but not hand-held scanners.

It’s not clear that this is the best way of defining automation, after all, using a hand-held scanner could involve only a little more human input than pressing the button to start an automated taco machine.

But since there’s no unique and satisfying definition of automation, Mann and Puttmann’s method is probably as good as most. They find, unsurprisingly, that the share of patents related to automation has climbed steeply, from 25 percent in 1976 to 67 percent in 2014.

The authors report that this increase in automation technology has not led to the loss of jobs overall, in fact, probably the opposite. By linking patents with industries and industries with locations, they purport to measure the statistical effect of automation patents on local employment.

They find that over a five-year period, automation patents routinely led to an increase in total employment as a percent of population.

Assuming Mann and Puttmann have defined automation right, correctly linked it to specific locations, and chosen the right time period over which to study the impact, this means that automation is creating jobs. That could be because humans continue to find new tasks to perform in order to complement new machines, or it could be because automation leads to a boom that increases local labor demand.

Either way, this research represents an important counterpoint to Acemoglu and Restrepo’s paper.

There is one caveat, though, Mann and Puttmann find that automation is associated with job loss in the manufacturing industry. Even as productivity in manufacturing has risen, demand for manufactured goods has not kept pace, hence, workers in that industry have been replaced rather than complemented.

A paper by economist James Bessen argues that this is a universal pattern. When an industry is young, automation doesn’t displace workers, because people keep buying more and more of that industry’s products. But when people eventually have enough of something, couches, televisions, etc., automation can no longer increase an industry’s aggregate size, and starts displacing workers instead.

This model implies that as long as we keep inventing new products and services, automation isn’t going to make humanity obsolete.

Only if the human race runs out of new desires will the robots take our jobs. So far, that shows no signs of happening. The prospect of automation threatening human usefulness remains firmly in the realm of science fiction.

Information- Managment

You Might Also Read: 

Welcome To A World Without Work (W3):

Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Drones (£):

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Of Intelligent Automation:

 

« The Cyber Threat To Airports
Increase In State-Sponsored Cyber Attacks »

CyberSecurity Jobsite
Perimeter 81

Directory of Suppliers

NordLayer

NordLayer

NordLayer is an adaptive network access security solution for modern businesses — from the world’s most trusted cybersecurity brand, Nord Security. 

Resecurity

Resecurity

Resecurity is a cybersecurity company that delivers a unified platform for endpoint protection, risk management, and cyber threat intelligence.

TÜV SÜD Academy UK

TÜV SÜD Academy UK

TÜV SÜD offers expert-led cybersecurity training to help organisations safeguard their operations and data.

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North IT (North Infosec Testing) are an award-winning provider of web, software, and application penetration testing.

ZenGRC

ZenGRC

ZenGRC (formerly Reciprocity) is a leader in the GRC SaaS landscape, offering robust and intuitive products designed to make compliance straightforward and efficient.

Versasec

Versasec

Versasec is a leader in identity and access management, providing customers with security solutions for managing digital identities.

Spirion

Spirion

Spirion offers data discovery, classification, and protection tools for your business's privacy, security, and compliance program to avoid gaps and risks.

CERT-UG/CC

CERT-UG/CC

CERT-UG/CC is the national Computer Emergency Response Team for Uganda, operating under the National Information Technology Authority (NITA-U)

United Security Providers

United Security Providers

United Security Providers is a leading specialist in information security, protecting IT infrastructures and applications for companies with high demands on security.

IberLayer

IberLayer

IberLayer is the company behind the Email Guardian service, a cloud based Email Total Protection system that filters and blocks email threats.

Hallam-ICS

Hallam-ICS

Hallam-ICS designs MEP systems for facilities and plants, control and automation solutions, and ensures safety and regulatory compliance.

u-blox

u-blox

u-blox deliver leading wireless technology to reliably and securely locate and connect people and devices.

Celerium

Celerium

Celerium transforms cyber defense for both companies and industry sectors by leveraging cyber threat intelligence to defend against cyber threats and attacks.

Sentor Managed Security Services

Sentor Managed Security Services

Sentor Managed Security Services is a cybersecurity company that enables organizations to exist in a digitally connected world.

Valeo Networks

Valeo Networks

Valeo Networks is a full-service Managed Security Service Provider (MSSP). We partner with organizations to remove the burden of technology so that they can focus on growing their business.

Apura Cybersecurity Intelligence

Apura Cybersecurity Intelligence

Apura is a Brazilian company that develops advanced products and provides specialized services in information security and cyber defense.

Leostream

Leostream

Leostream's Remote Desktop Access Platform enables seamless work-from-anywhere flexibility while maintaining security and constant visibility of users.

Yarix

Yarix

Yarix is the leading company in Var Group’s Digital Security division and one of the most recognised, innovative and authoritative Italian companies in the IT security sector.

Runecast Solutions

Runecast Solutions

Runecast Solutions is a global leader in AI-powered risk mitigation, security, continuous compliance and more efficient IT operations management.

Neptune Shield

Neptune Shield

Neptune Shield's mission is to deliver cutting edge Maritime focused Cyber Security & Threat Protection through our Hampton Roads based Tech & Cyber Security Hub.

Karthik Consulting (KC)

Karthik Consulting (KC)

Karthik Consulting is a technology service provider specializing in IT services for the U.S. federal government.