US Reduces Crime Rates Using Effective IT
Crime has fallen dramatically over the past 20 years, primarily due to the technological changes which have made it harder to commit crime.
For decades, politicians have been perpetuating two big myths about crime. Those on the right have argued that only ever-tougher prison terms will deter would-be wrong-doers. Those on the left have argued that crime will only fall when we reform society and reduce poverty and inequality. In fact, crime has fallen dramatically over the past 20 years, not due to reforms traditionally advocated by politicians, but due to the technological change which has made it harder to commit crime.
In many developed countries, crime has halved overall, with precise drops varying from country to country. Some crime types have fallen particularly rapidly: car crime, for example, has more than halved across developed countries, and in the UK, is at one-sixth of early 90s levels. Much of this shift is a result of the slow spread of central locking and electronic immobilisers - with countries that forced manufacturers to deploy these technologies soonest experiencing the quickest and most dramatic crime drops.
Credit, and debit-card fraud has not dropped in absolute terms, but in terms of the amounts stolen as a proportion of total card spend it has fallen dramatically in many countries. Here, falls have been greatest where chip-and-PIN technology is widely used.
Murder rates have fallen by over a third in the US and, at first glance, it is hard to think that technology might be involved in the shift. A study led by University of Massachusetts professor Anthony Harris found that US murder rates might have been three times higher today were it not for advances in communication and medical technologies.
Other technologies have allowed us to protect ourselves from crime. Assaults by unlicensed, unmonitored taxi drivers have receded as consumers have become habituated to companies such as Uber and Lyft, which use databases to increase taxi availability and reduce driver anonymity. And police are harnessing technology to improve their effectiveness, both by using DNA analysis and other investigative tools to detect crimes, and by finding ways of preventing it.
"Predictive policing", the use of data and analytic tools to predict where crimes might occur, has ensured fewer officers are randomly patrolling the streets to no effect and more are in locations where they might actually make a difference. Early trials of body-worn cameras suggest that they might be preventing the escalation of conflict around police searches and arrests, because they moderate the behaviour of both the police and those they are dealing with.
Too few people acknowledge the fact that technology has helped us become safer. Some segments of the media deny that we are even getting safer, knowing that fear sells. Those selling security online, meanwhile, highlight the threats of new, technology-enabled crimes.
Of course, there are genuine concerns. Online pornography outlets can shepherd viewers towards illegal images they might never have previously encountered. Scammers use a single attack to target, yet force impunity in their jurisdictions. 3D printing can indeed create usable firearms, though I'm not aware of any having been used to kill anyone.
And there are now cheap, basic devices that can easily overcome car-security measures in some cars, though they are rarely used. There is reason for optimism - as long as we are not complacent. The average criminal has never been particularly sophisticated or determined, which is why using technology to minimise easy opportunities for crime has had such a powerful effect.
Those most able to deploy advanced technologies are generally well educated and enjoyed stable upbringings, a reason why even imprisoned hackers tend to end up working in places such as Silicon Valley. When the most talented and committed generally work for good, not ill, they can address new vulnerabilities.
Steps are being taken to manage new risks. The Intrenet WatchFoundations using so-called PhotoDNA to create unique identifiers of child exploitation images, which are in turn helping authorities to target websites that are actually fueling new abuses, rather than redistributing images. Consumers are realising that they should not send their bank details to Nigeria to secure their "lottery winnings". And governments are finding ways of stopping the sale of car-unlocking technologies that could only have dubious uses. Innovation in law enforcement abounds. Singapore is trialing technology which analyses CCTV footage in real time to anticipate crime and public disorder. Lloydminster in Canada is one of several cities to use drones to detect traffic offences.
In London, the Metropolitan Police is trialing data analytics to predict who among those arrested is likely to re-offend.
The question is therefore not whether technology can reduce crime. It already has. Rather, the question is how we harness technology best, and what roles should individuals, businesses and governments play in this worthwhile collective endeavour.
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