The Human Cost Of Cyberwar
Cyber-attacks and their consequences are on top of the agenda around the world. They have become part of most countries military strategy and operations tactics. Right now, it is accepted that cyber-attacks will cause substantial economic loss and physical damage. but recent cyber-attacks against electrical grids and the health-care sector have underscored the vulnerability of these country systems and services.
The use of cyber operations during armed conflicts is a reality. While only a few States so far have publicly acknowledged that they use them, cyber operations are a known feature of present-day military operations and the use of them is likely to increase in the future.
To develop a realistic assessment of cyber capabilities and their potential humanitarian consequences in light of their technical characteristics, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) brought together scientific and cyber security experts from all over the world to share their knowledge about the technical possibilities, expected use, and potential effects of cyber operations.
The three-day meeting drew on the expertise of participants working for global IT companies, cyber threat intelligence companies, computer emergency response teams, a national cyber security agency, participants with expertise in cyber security (including that of hospitals, electrical grids and other services), participants with expertise in the development and use of military cyber operations, lawyers and academics.
States and militaries remain reluctant to disclose their cyber capabilities, including the details of cyber operations conducted in the context of armed conflicts, and little is known about the few acknowledged cases.
Therefore, the experts discussed a number of the most sophisticated known cyber operations, regardless of whether they occurred in the context of an armed conflict or in peacetime. Examining the technical features of these attacks and the specific vulnerabilities of the respective targets provides a powerful evidence base for what is technically possible also during armed conflict.
The meeting focused in particular on the risk that cyber operations might cause death, injury or physical damage, affect the delivery of essential services to the population, or affect the reliability of internet services. It looked at the specific characteristics of cyber tools, how cyber threats have evolved, and the cyber security landscape.
Areas of concern
Discussions helped to put the spotlight on four areas of particular concern in terms of the potential human cost of cyber operations:
1. the specific vulnerabilities of certain types of infrastructure
2. the risk of overreaction due to potential misunderstanding of the intended purpose of hostile cyber
operations
3. the unique manner in which cyber tools may proliferate
4. the obstacles that the difficulty of attributing cyber-attacks creates for ensuring compliance with
international law.
Specific vulnerabilities of certain types of infrastructure: cyber-attacks that may affect the delivery of health care, industrial control systems, or the reliability or availability of core Internet services.
Apart from causing substantial economic loss, cyber operations can harm infrastructure in at least two ways.
First, they can affect the delivery of essential services to civilians, as has been shown with cyber-attacks against electrical grids and the health-care sector.
Second, they can cause physical damage, as was the case with the Stuxnet attack against a nuclear enrichment facility in Iran in 2010, and an attack on a German steel mill in 2014.
Way forward
The use of cyber operations in armed conflict is likely to continue and might remain shrouded in secrecy. Analysing its consequences is a complex and long-term endeavour that requires multidisciplinary expertise and interaction with a wide variety of stakeholders.
Building upon the conclusions reached at the expert meeting, the ICRC would like to pursue the dialogue with governments, experts and the IT sector.
It looks forward to the feedback to this report to continue to follow the evolution of cyber operations, in particular during armed conflicts, and their potential human cost, explore avenues that could reduce them, and work towards a consensus on the interpretation of existing IHL rules, and potentially the development of complementary rules that afford effective protection to civilians.
ICRC:
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