The Human Cost Of Cyberwar

Cyber-attacks and their consequences are on top of the agenda around the world. They have become part of most countries military strategy and operations tactics. Right now, it is accepted that cyber-attacks will cause substantial economic loss and physical damage. but recent cyber-attacks against electrical grids and the health-care sector have underscored the vulnerability of these country systems and services.

The use of cyber operations during armed conflicts is a reality. While only a few States so far have publicly acknowledged that they use them, cyber operations are a known feature of present-day military operations and the use of them is likely to increase in the future. 

To develop a realistic assessment of cyber capabilities and their potential humanitarian consequences in light of their technical characteristics, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) brought together scientific and cyber security experts from all over the world to share their knowledge about the technical possibilities, expected use, and potential effects of cyber operations. 

The three-day meeting drew on the expertise of participants working for global IT companies, cyber threat intelligence companies, computer emergency response teams, a national cyber security agency, participants with expertise in cyber security (including that of hospitals, electrical grids and other services), participants with expertise in the development and use of military cyber operations, lawyers and academics. 

States and militaries remain reluctant to disclose their cyber capabilities, including the details of cyber operations conducted in the context of armed conflicts, and little is known about the few acknowledged cases. 

Therefore, the experts discussed a number of the most sophisticated known cyber operations, regardless of whether they occurred in the context of an armed conflict or in peacetime. Examining the technical features of these attacks and the specific vulnerabilities of the respective targets provides a powerful evidence base for what is technically possible also during armed conflict. 

The meeting focused in particular on the risk that cyber operations might cause death, injury or physical damage, affect the delivery of essential services to the population, or affect the reliability of internet services. It looked at the specific characteristics of cyber tools, how cyber threats have evolved, and the cyber security landscape. 

Areas of concern 
Discussions helped to put the spotlight on four areas of particular concern in terms of the potential human cost of cyber operations:

1. the specific vulnerabilities of certain types of infrastructure
2. the risk of overreaction due to potential misunderstanding of the intended purpose of hostile cyber 
operations
3. the unique manner in which cyber tools may proliferate
4. the obstacles that the difficulty of attributing cyber-attacks creates for ensuring compliance with 
international law. 

Specific vulnerabilities of certain types of infrastructure: cyber-attacks that may affect the delivery of health care, industrial control systems, or the reliability or availability of core Internet services. 

Apart from causing substantial economic loss, cyber operations can harm infrastructure in at least two ways. 

First, they can affect the delivery of essential services to civilians, as has been shown with cyber-attacks against electrical grids and the health-care sector. 

Second, they can cause physical damage, as was the case with the Stuxnet attack against a nuclear enrichment facility in Iran in 2010, and an attack on a German steel mill in 2014. 

Way forward 
The use of cyber operations in armed conflict is likely to continue and might remain shrouded in secrecy. Analysing its consequences is a complex and long-term endeavour that requires multidisciplinary expertise and interaction with a wide variety of stakeholders. 

Building upon the conclusions reached at the expert meeting, the ICRC would like to pursue the dialogue with governments, experts and the IT sector. 

It looks forward to the feedback to this report to continue to follow the evolution of cyber operations, in particular during armed conflicts, and their potential human cost, explore avenues that could reduce them, and work towards a consensus on the interpretation of existing IHL rules, and potentially the development of complementary rules that afford effective protection to civilians. 

ICRC:   

You Might Also Read:

Cyber Attackers Will Soon Kill Somebody:

The Digital Transformation Of The Humanitarian Sector:

« Russia's National AI Strategy Takes Shape
The New Sophistication Of Nation-State Hacking »

ManageEngine
CyberSecurity Jobsite
Check Point

Directory of Suppliers

Directory of Cyber Security Suppliers

Directory of Cyber Security Suppliers

Our Supplier Directory lists 8,000+ specialist cyber security service providers in 128 countries worldwide. IS YOUR ORGANISATION LISTED?

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North IT (North Infosec Testing) are an award-winning provider of web, software, and application penetration testing.

BackupVault

BackupVault

BackupVault is a leading provider of automatic cloud backup and critical data protection against ransomware, insider attacks and hackers for businesses and organisations worldwide.

TÜV SÜD Academy UK

TÜV SÜD Academy UK

TÜV SÜD offers expert-led cybersecurity training to help organisations safeguard their operations and data.

MIRACL

MIRACL

MIRACL provides the world’s only single step Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) which can replace passwords on 100% of mobiles, desktops or even Smart TVs.

Allgress

Allgress

Allgress solutions converge disparate risk silos across enterprise networks and automate governance, risk and compliance management processes.

MNCERT/CC

MNCERT/CC

MNCERT/CC is the national Computer Emergency Response Team for Mongolia.

Falanx Cyber

Falanx Cyber

Falanx Cyber provides enterprise-class cyber security services and solutions. We deliver end-to-end cyber capabilities, either as specific engagements or as fully-managed services.

IABG

IABG

IABG offer independent, product-neutral consulting as well as technical and scientific services for the use of safety-relevant systems and technologies.

NESEC

NESEC

NESEC is a specialist in information security consulting services and solutions.

Qatar Computing Research Institute (QCRI)

Qatar Computing Research Institute (QCRI)

QCRI perform cutting-edge research in such areas as Arabic language technologies, social computing, data analytics, distributed systems, cyber security and computational science and engineering.

KOVRR

KOVRR

Kovrr financially quantifies cyber risk on demand. Our technology enables decision makers to seamlessly drive actionable cyber risk management decisions.

Cryptoloc

Cryptoloc

Cryptoloc's core business is developing solutions designed to protect businesses from all kinds of security threats using a unique patented cryptography.

High Security Center (HSC)

High Security Center (HSC)

High Security Center provide real-time threat protection. We protect your company from targeted and persistent attacks using technologies such as Machine Learning and Behavioral Analysis.

Path Forward IT

Path Forward IT

Path Forward IT has been troubleshooting, architecting, migrating, protecting, and securing IT environments for businesses across the USA since 2002.

Rolls-Royce Cybersecurity Technology Research Network

Rolls-Royce Cybersecurity Technology Research Network

Rolls-Royce has partnered with Purdue University and Carnegie Mellon University to create the Rolls-Royce Cybersecurity Technology Research Network.

Surefire Cyber

Surefire Cyber

Surefire Cyber delivers swift, strong response to cyber incidents such as ransomware, email compromise, malware, data theft, and other threats with end-to-end response capabilities.

Circle Security

Circle Security

Circle’s breakthrough security API unifies solutions for identity and data security into one architecture and empowers organizations to secure their identity, data and privacy in their applications.

PDQ

PDQ

PDQ helps IT professionals to manage and organize hardware, software, and configuration data for Windows- and Apple-based devices.

Cyber Security Unity (CSU)

Cyber Security Unity (CSU)

Cyber Security Unity (formerly the UK Cyber Security Association) is a new global community which has been set up to help unite the industry and combat the growing cyber threat.

Valmet

Valmet

Valmet is a leading global developer and supplier of process technologies, automation and services for the pulp, paper and energy industries.