The Destabilizing Danger Of Cyberattacks On Missile Systems

Attacks that aim to disable enemy missile systems may increase the chance of them being used, not least because the systems are so vulnerable.   By Patricia Lewis and Beyza Unal
 
After President Trump decided to halt a missile attack on Iran in response to the downing of a US drone, it was revealed that the US had conducted cyberattacks on Iranian weapons systems to prevent Iran launching missiles against US assets in the region.

This ‘left-of-launch’ strategy – the pre-emptive action to prevent an adversary launch missiles – has been part of the US missile defence strategy for some time now. President George W Bush asked the US military and intelligence community to infiltrate the supply chain of North Korean missiles. It was claimed that the US hacked the North Korean ballistic missile programme, causing a failed ballistic missile test, in 2012.

It was not clear then – or now – whether these ‘left-of-launch’ cyberattacks aimed at North Korea were successful as described or whether they were primarily a bluff. But that is somewhat irrelevant; the belief in the possibility and the understanding of the potential impact of such cyber capabilities undermines North Korean or Iranian confidence in their abilities to launch their missiles. In times of conflict, loss of confidence in weapons systems may lead to escalation.

In other words, the adversary may be left with no option but to take the chance to use these missiles or to lose them in a conflict setting. ‘Left of launch’ is a dangerous game. If it is based on a bluff, it could be called upon and lead to deterrence failure. If it is based on real action, then it could create an asymmetrical power struggle. If the attacker establishes false confidence in the power of a cyber weapon, then it might lead to false signalling and messaging.

This is the new normal. The cat-and-mouse game has to be taken seriously, not least because missile systems are so vulnerable.

There are several ways an offensive cyber operation against missile systems might work. These include exploiting missile designs, altering software or hardware, or creating clandestine pathways to the missile command and control systems.

They can also be attacked in space, targeting space assets and their link to strategic systems.

Most missile systems rely, at least in part, on digital information that comes from or via space-based or space-dependent assets such as: communication satellites; satellites that provide position, navigation and timing (PNT) information (for example GPS or Galileo); weather satellites to help predict flight paths, accurate targeting and launch conditions; and remote imagery satellites to assist with information and intelligence for the planning and targeting.

Missile launches themselves depend on:-

 1) the command and control systems of the missiles,

2) the way in which information is transmitted to the missile launch facilities and

3) the way in which information is transmitted to the missiles themselves in flight. All these aspects rely on space technology.

In addition, the ground stations that transmit and receive data to and from satellites are also vulnerable to cyberattack – either through their known and unknown internet connectivity or through malicious use of flash drives that contain a deliberate cyber infection.

Non-space-based communications systems that use cable and ground-to-air-to-ground masts are likewise under threat from cyberattacks that find their way in via internet connectivity, proximity interference or memory sticks. Human error in introducing connectivity via phones, laptops and external drives, and in clicking on malicious links in sophisticated phishing lures, is common in facilitating inadvertent connectivity and malware infection.

All of these can create a military capacity able to interfere with missile launches. Malware might have been sitting on the missile command and control system for months or even years, remaining inactivated until a chosen time or by a trigger that sets in motion a disruption either to the launch or to the flight path of the missile. The country that launches the missile that either fails to launch or fails to reach the target may never know if this was the result of a design flaw, a common malfunction or a deliberate cyberattack.

States with these capabilities must exercise caution: cyber offence manoeuvres may prevent the launch of missile attacks against US assets in the Middle East or in the Pacific regions, but they may also interfere with US missile launches in the future.

Even, as has recently been revealed, US cyber weapons targeting an adversary may blow back and inadvertently infect US systems. Nobody is invulnerable. 

Dr Patricia Lewis is Research Director, International Security, Chatham House

Dr Beyza Unal is Senior Research Fellow, International Security Department

You Might Also Read: 

Cyber Threats And Nuclear Weapons Systems:

 

 

 

« E-Fusion And Industry 4.0
Russian FSB Hacked: "Largest data breach in its history" »

CyberSecurity Jobsite
Perimeter 81

Directory of Suppliers

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North IT (North Infosec Testing) are an award-winning provider of web, software, and application penetration testing.

Practice Labs

Practice Labs

Practice Labs is an IT competency hub, where live-lab environments give access to real equipment for hands-on practice of essential cybersecurity skills.

The PC Support Group

The PC Support Group

A partnership with The PC Support Group delivers improved productivity, reduced costs and protects your business through exceptional IT, telecoms and cybersecurity services.

CYRIN

CYRIN

CYRIN® Cyber Range. Real Tools, Real Attacks, Real Scenarios. See why leading educational institutions and companies in the U.S. have begun to adopt the CYRIN® system.

Syxsense

Syxsense

Syxsense brings together endpoint management and security for greater efficiency and collaboration between IT management and security teams.

Palo Alto Networks

Palo Alto Networks

Palo Alto Networks, the global cybersecurity leader, is shaping the cloud-centric future with technology that is transforming the way people and organizations operate.

Kualitatem

Kualitatem

Kualitatem Inc. is an independent software testing and information systems auditing company

RCMP Cybercrime Strategy

RCMP Cybercrime Strategy

The RCMP Cybercrime Strategy sets out in an Operational Framework and Action Plan to combat cybercrime.

Innova

Innova

Innova is Turkey's leading IT solutions company, providing platform independent solutions to organizations in telecommunication, finance, production, public and service sectors.

FutureCon Events

FutureCon Events

FutureCon produces cutting edge events aimed for Senior Level Professionals working in the security community, bringing together the best minds in the industry for a unique cybersecurity event.

Netacea

Netacea

Netacea provides a revolutionary bot management solution that protects websites, mobile apps and APIs from malicious attacks such as scraping, credential stuffing and account takeover.

Silicon Cloud International

Silicon Cloud International

Silicon Cloud is a high performance and secure cloud computing platform for engineering and scientific applications.

Research Institute in Secure Hardware and Embedded Systems (RISE)

Research Institute in Secure Hardware and Embedded Systems (RISE)

The UK Research Institute in Secure Hardware and Embedded Systems (RISE) seeks to identify and address key issues that underpin our understanding of Hardware Security.

Mindmajix Technologies

Mindmajix Technologies

Mindmajix is a live and interactive e-learning platform that offers professional online IT training in areas including cyber security.

Talion

Talion

Talion aim to reduce the complexity involved in securing your organisation and to give security teams unrivalled visibility into their security operations, so they can make optimal decisions, fast.

e5 Lab

e5 Lab

e5 Lab seeks to develop solutions to challenges faced by the shipping industry including digital transformation, autonomous technologies and big data in order to promote safe and efficient operations.

QAlified

QAlified

QAlified offer independent testing and quality assurance services for software projects including security testing.

Aravo Solutions

Aravo Solutions

Your Extended Enterprise is full of hidden risks – Aravo makes them visible, measurable, and manageable.

Zenzero

Zenzero

Zenzero simplifies technology adoption and supports our customers through managed and outsourced IT support.

Paramount Defenses

Paramount Defenses

Paramount Defenses have unrivaled capability in two of the most critical areas in cyber security today – Active Directory Security and Privileged Access.

Defendis

Defendis

Defendis develops AI-powered cybersecurity solutions for Government Agencies, Banks, and Businesses, designed to helps them contain data leaks, minimise damage, and proactively hunt for new threats.