Russian Cyberwar Methods Are Evolving
President Vladimir recentlyoffered to end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO membership ambitions and concede the four provinces of its territory that are claimed and occupied by Russian troops.These terms were swiftly rejected by the democratically elected Ukraine government.
But the the Russian offer does suggest that they do not see a near term military victory in the disputed territory, and this could be the motive behind an evolution of its cyberwar tactics in the overall military conflict.
In particular, Russian cyber units have started to focus on targets tied to Ukrainian military objectives, trying to hack devices used by Ukrainian soldiers and getting access into command and control systems.This new approach to cyber operations marks a shift from attacking more strategic civilian targets like telecommunications and energy infrastructure.
It does look like that Russia has altered its approach to exploit the type of targets that could provide more direct battlefield advantages, and supporting its ground forces. These new priorities in the conflict may be an indication that they consider their cyber weapons are becoming a more effective alternative to conventional weapons.
While Russia has deployed a sustained campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the outset of the conflict in 2022, it has achieved no conclusive strategic advantage. Two years later, Russia has recalculated how it is using its cyber weapons and sophisticated hacking capabilities to achieve the type of asymmetric advantage which its very high level of capability can deliver. Although there is no sign that Russia has abandoned its cyber efforts against critical infrastructure, it looks like cyber attacks against such targets are difficult to carry out and do achieve the anticipated results.
If Russia’s tactical shift has a measurable impact, then it will be guide for how other militaries will start integrating their own cyber capabilities. Their true power may prove to be not as a 'first strike' weapon, but a 'force multiplier' on the battlefield - a complement that reinforces conventional military operations.
The extent with which this new effort is successful remains to be seen, however, it is evident is that Russia has not achieved what it is wanted with respect to conducting cyber attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructures.
Damage and disruption have been caused but little else with respect to getting Ukraine to submit. This evolution plays to those areas in which cyber operations have been most effective - stealing data, compromising devices, and surveilling targets in advance of conventional attacks.
If that is right, then we can expect that Russia’s new operational concepts will rapidly proliferate outside Ukraine.
NCSC | Reuters | Dark Reading | RUSI | Europan Parliament | Oodaloop
Image: Unsplash
You Might Also Read:
Stronger Civilian Cyber Defences In Ukraine:
If you like this website and use the comprehensive 6,500-plus service supplier Directory, you can get unrestricted access, including the exclusive in-depth Directors Report series, by signing up for a Premium Subscription.
- Individual £5 per month or £50 per year. Sign Up
- Multi-User, Corporate & Library Accounts Available on Request
- Inquiries: Contact Cyber Security Intelligence
Cyber Security Intelligence: Captured Organised & Accessible
