Ransomware Trends & Top Six Predictions For 2025

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Ransomware Trends and Top 6 Predictions for 2025

What Is Ransomware?

Ransomware is a type of malicious software that blocks access to a computer system or data until a sum of money, or ransom, is paid. This form of cyber extortion is typically delivered through phishing emails or by exploiting system vulnerabilities. The malware encrypts files on the target system, rendering them inaccessible to the victim.

Victims are often pressured to pay the ransom through intimidation and threats of data loss or exposure. The payment is usually demanded in cryptocurrencies, making transactions difficult to trace.

Despite making payments, victims are not guaranteed that their files will be decrypted. With the rise of ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS), the barrier for entry into cybercrime has lowered, enabling even non-technical criminals to launch attacks with ease. This makes it critical for organizations to consider their ransomware protection strategy.

Recent High-Profile Ransomware Attacks

Several significant ransomware attacks in 2024 underscored the growing threat to critical industries.

In June, the BlackSuit ransomware group targeted CDK Global, a major software provider for auto dealerships. The attack disrupted operations at thousands of dealerships across North America. The attackers demanded 387 bitcoin (approximately $25 million), but the ransom was not recovered. This incident highlighted the vulnerability of supply chains and large-scale service providers.

In September, AT&T fell victim to the ShinyHunters hacking group, which stole millions of customer call records. The attackers demanded 5.72 bitcoin (around $373,000). Although the ransom was paid, the funds were quickly laundered through multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, complicating law enforcement’s efforts to trace the transaction.

Earlier in the year, the AlphV (BlackCat) ransomware group attacked Change Healthcare, a crucial entity in the U.S. healthcare system. The breach disrupted pharmacy services and hospital operations nationwide. The attackers demanded a $22 million ransom, exposing the healthcare sector's vulnerability to cyber threats.

Top Ransomware Trends

Ransomware attacks in 2024 evolved into more sophisticated operations, targeting organizations, critical infrastructure, and governments with advanced tactics. The following trends highlight how attackers adapted to maximize their impact:

Double and triple extortion schemes: Ransomware groups increasingly used double and triple extortion methods. Instead of just encrypting files, they also exfiltrated sensitive data and threatened to leak it. Some attacks added a third layer by launching distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks to pressure victims further. For example, a major U.S. healthcare provider suffered a triple extortion attack in which patient records were encrypted, stolen, and followed by DDoS disruptions.

Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) growth: The RaaS model allowed even low-skilled cybercriminals to execute ransomware attacks using pre-built tools. Groups like LockBit, BlackCat, and Play provided affiliates with malware, technical support, and even marketing strategies, fueling a surge in attacks. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, with small and medium-sized organizations (SMBs) being prime targets due to weaker cybersecurity defenses.

Data exfiltration as a standard tactic: Ransomware operators routinely stole sensitive data before encrypting systems, increasing the pressure on victims to pay. In 2024, a global financial institution faced a breach in which millions of customer records were stolen. The incident led to legal consequences and a loss of customer trust.

Zero-day exploits and advanced phishing: Attackers leveraged zero-day vulnerabilities and highly targeted phishing campaigns to gain initial access. A large tech company fell victim when employees unknowingly opened a phishing email disguised as a vendor message. The attackers then exploited an unknown software vulnerability to deploy ransomware.
Living off the land (LotL) techniques: Cybercriminals increasingly used legitimate system tools like PowerShell and Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) to move laterally within networks without detection. For example, in an attack on a healthcare organization, hackers exploited built-in system utilities instead of deploying traditional malware.

Critical infrastructure as a prime target: Sectors such as healthcare, energy, and government became top targets due to weaker cybersecurity defenses. A North American energy provider experienced a ransomware attack that led to power outages and operational disruptions.

Ransomware attacks on manufacturing: The manufacturing industry faced increased ransomware threats, disrupting production and supply chains. In one case, a global automotive manufacturer had to halt production for weeks after an attack, resulting in millions in losses and delayed deliveries.

Lower ransom payments, higher incident costs: While the average ransom payment dropped from $850,000 to $569,000 in 2024, the total cost of ransomware incidents increased due to recovery expenses, lost sales, and reputational damage. A mid-sized retail company paid a smaller ransom but still faced over $3 million in total costs from lost revenue and operational disruptions.

Emergence of new ransomware variants: New ransomware strains like Akira and BlackCat emerged with advanced encryption and stealth features. For example, Akira ransomware targeted a European bank, using multi-layered encryption that made recovery nearly impossible without paying the ransom.

International crackdowns on ransomware groups: Law enforcement agencies intensified efforts against ransomware, dismantling major operations and recovering stolen funds. A joint operation between the FBI and Europol in 2024 led to the takedown of a major ransomware group and the recovery of $20 million in ransom payments.

Key Ransomware Predictions for 2025

Ransomware threats are expected to escalate in 2025, with cybercriminals adopting more sophisticated tactics to maximize their impact.

The following key predictions highlight emerging trends in ransomware operations.

1. AI-Powered Social Engineering Attacks Will Surge
Threat actors will increasingly use generative AI (GenAI) to improve social engineering techniques, particularly voice phishing (vishing). AI-generated voices will sound highly realistic, including local accents and dialects, making it easier to deceive employees into granting access to corporate networks.

These tactics will help attackers exfiltrate sensitive data and deploy ransomware while remaining undetected. As a result, organizations will need to adopt AI-driven security measures, such as zero-trust frameworks, to mitigate the risks posed by AI-enhanced cyber threats.

2. Ransomware Groups Will Shift to Targeted Attacks
Instead of launching widespread attacks, ransomware operators will focus on low-volume, high-impact campaigns. These targeted attacks will involve extensive reconnaissance, data theft, and extortion without necessarily encrypting files.

Groups like Dark Angels have already demonstrated this approach, prioritizing stealth over visibility to avoid media attention and law enforcement scrutiny. Attackers will combine multiple techniques—such as social engineering, ransomware deployment, and data exfiltration—to increase pressure on victims and maximize ransom payments.

3. Critical Sectors Will Remain Prime Targets
Industries such as manufacturing, healthcare, education, and energy will continue to face relentless ransomware attacks due to their operational vulnerabilities. In 2024, the energy sector experienced a 500% increase in ransomware incidents, and similar trends are expected to persist in 2025.

Cybercriminals will exploit the high stakes involved in these sectors, knowing that service disruptions can force victims to comply with ransom demands quickly. Strengthening cybersecurity in critical infrastructure will be essential to mitigating these persistent threats.

4. SEC Regulations Will Drive Increased Cyber Incident Transparency
New cybersecurity disclosure requirements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will compel organizations to publicly report ransomware incidents and ransom payments. This transparency will expose companies to reputational risks but may also encourage stronger security measures to prevent future breaches.

As ransomware incidents become more visible, organizations will need to prioritize proactive security strategies to avoid public scrutiny and potential legal consequences.

5. Data Exfiltration-Only Attacks Will Increase
Cybercriminals will increasingly conduct high-volume data exfiltration attacks without encrypting files. This method allows attackers to bypass traditional ransomware defenses while still pressuring victims to pay, fearing the public release of sensitive data.

This shift toward encryption-less attacks has been growing since 2022 and is expected to accelerate in 2025 as attackers seek faster and more efficient extortion techniques.

6. International Cybercrime Crackdowns Will Intensify
Governments and private-sector organizations will continue expanding efforts to combat ransomware groups through international collaboration. Law enforcement agencies will focus on disrupting initial access brokers and major ransomware networks by sharing intelligence across borders.

These joint operations have already led to significant takedowns, such as the dismantling of major ransomware groups in 2024. However, cybercriminals are likely to adapt, making ongoing global coordination essential in the fight against ransomware.

Best Practices for Ransomware Mitigation

Organizations can reduce the risk of ransomware attacks by implementing proactive security measures. The following best practices help strengthen defenses and improve resilience against evolving threats.

Implement strong backup strategies: Regularly back up critical data and ensure backups are stored securely offline or in an immutable format. Test recovery procedures frequently to minimize downtime in the event of an attack.

Apply security patches and updates promptly: Keep operating systems, applications, and firmware up to date to close known security vulnerabilities. Prioritize patching critical software and network devices to prevent ransomware from exploiting unpatched flaws.

Enforce multi-factor authentication (MFA): Require MFA for all users, especially for remote access and privileged accounts. This adds an extra layer of security, making it harder for attackers to gain unauthorized access.

Restrict administrative privileges: Limit the number of users with administrative access to reduce the attack surface. Implement the principle of least privilege (PoLP) to restrict permissions based on role requirements.

Improve email and endpoint security: Use advanced email filtering to detect phishing attempts and malicious attachments. Deploy endpoint detection and response (EDR) solutions to monitor for ransomware indicators and stop attacks in real time.

Segment networks and restrict lateral movement: Divide networks into isolated segments to prevent ransomware from spreading. Implement zero-trust principles, requiring verification for all network communications.

Conduct employee security training: Train employees to recognize phishing emails, suspicious links, and social engineering tactics. Regularly test awareness with simulated phishing campaigns.

Disable unused remote access services: Restrict or disable Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) and other remote access services if not needed. Use VPNs and secure authentication for remote connections.

Deploy threat intelligence and monitoring: Use threat intelligence services to stay informed about emerging ransomware threats. Deploy Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) solutions to detect anomalies in real time.

Develop and test an incident response plan: Create a detailed ransomware response plan outlining detection, containment, and recovery steps. Conduct tabletop exercises and simulations to ensure teams are prepared to respond.

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