Might AI Influence Big Elections In 2024?

Uploaded on 2024-01-12 in TECHNOLOGY-Key Areas-Artificial Intelligence, NEWS-Cybersecurity News, FREE TO VIEW

Computer engineers and IT experts have warned for years that cheap, powerful Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools will allow anyone to create fake images, video and audio that was realistic enough to fool voters and change an election. AI has been an aspect of political campaigning for some time, using data and algorithms to automate tasks such as targeting voters on social media or tracking down donors.

In 2024 elections all around the world are facing an evolving threat from foreign actors that involves AI generated attacks in ways that have already been used to disrupt elections around the world. There are growing fears amongst government agencies, politicians and the security services of a growing threat.

Generative AI tools such as Midjourney make it cheap to create convincing deepfakes, whether still images or video, just as concern is growing about how such material should be used. Manipulated images and videos surrounding elections are nothing new, but 2024 will be the first elections in which sophisticated AI tools that can produce convincing fakes in seconds are just a few clicks away.

In the run-up to the 2016 US presidential election, social media platforms were vectors for misinformation as political activists, foreign influence campaigns and fake news sites worked to spread false information and exploit divisions. Also in 2016 Russia launched a series of social media disinformation campaigns targeting the US presidential election and recently a number of countries used social media to influence foreign elections around the globe.

In 2024 elections in the US, United Kingom and other large democracies face the new threat from Generative AI and large language models.

Election season will soon begin in Argentina and Poland in October, Taiwan in January 2024, Indonesia in February, India in April, the European Union and Mexico in June and the US in November. Nine African democracies, including South Africa, will have elections in 2024. Australia and the UK so far don’t have fixed dates, but elections will probably happen in 2024.

Generative AI tools also allow for new techniques of production and distribution, such as low-level propaganda at scale. These have the ability to quickly and easily produce endless reams of text on any topic in any tone from any perspective. The more powerful ChatGPT v.4 was released in March 2023. Other language and image production AIs are around the same age, but so far it isn’t clear how these technologies will change fake information.

Both Russia and China have a history of testing both cyber attacks and information operations on smaller countries before rolling them out at scale. When that happens, it’s important to be able to accurately identify these tactics. Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognise them and requires spotting them now.

US election officials have been making a major effort since 2020 to prepare for an expected resurgence of election denial narratives. They've dispatched teams to explain voting processes, hired outside groups to monitor misinformation as it emerges and beefed up physical protections at vote-counting centres.

However, social media could still be flooded with synthetic images and text and some experts fear voters could reach the point where where they no longer know what is real and what is fake.

Columbia Journalism Review: DefenseOne: CBS: PBS: Context: Guardian: Image: mikhail nilov

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