Islamic State Is An Existential Threat

The Europeans have tended to be snooty about the Americans. Especially the French, but the attitude is ingrained even in the “special relationship” with the UK. Opinion By John Lloyd

In interviews with intelligence service people, mostly retired, for a project for the Reuters Institute, I often heard that senior British officers had thought the phrase “War on Terror” to be a stupid one, and that they never used it. It was not a war, they believed. The struggle was not “existential.” It was a serious challenge from serious militants: hard, vicious but finite.

It’s different now. Francois Hollande, the Socialist president of France, has said that the slaughter in Paris last Friday evening was “an act of war.” Pope Francis, at a commemoration service for the 100,000 Italian soldiers killed in the World War One (his grandfather was one of the soldiers who survived) said that “one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal, with crimes, massacres, destruction.”

The Europeans aren’t being snooty anymore: Paris, Friday, Nov. 13, 2015, has brought Europe together in an agony of anger — so much, that it is the US president who feels compelled to remind us that we should have a duty of welcome to refugees from Syria.

And there’s another switch. Vice President Jsoseph Biden, speaking recently in Los Angeles, said “I say to the American people: There is no existential threat to the United States. Nothing ISIS can do could bring down the government, could threaten the way we live.”

But the man who commanded the British armed forces from 2010 to 2013 thinks that’s mere complacency. General David Richards said at a history festival in June this year that the threat is existential and “that we need to approach this issue of Muslim extremism as we might approach World War Two back in the 1930s.” In a recent book, he’s said to have told the British prime minister that he lacked the courage to take the fight to Islamic State, being too obsessed with wishing to appear liberal.

There are three main reasons why Richards is right and Biden wrong.

First, for some three decades, the nightmare of politicians and secret services has been that rogue states, and/or terrorist groups, would acquire weapons of mass destruction. It runs through “At the Center of the Storm,” the memoir of George Tenet, CIA director from 1996-2004. It kept successive presidents, from Clinton through Bush to Obama, awake at night; prompted their interventions abroad and (in Obama’s presidency) the heavy use of killer drones. It has meant that the National Security Agency (NSA) has now incomparably the largest budget of any intelligence service anywhere, so that the first “chatter” which reveals that the nightmare has real flesh can be detected.

Islamic State might be the organization to put flesh on that nightmare, because it has the money and can buy the expertise to make WMD. An investigation last month by the Financial Times found that in the areas of Iraq it controls, ISIS has “a sprawling operation almost akin to a state oil company that … recruits skilled workers, from engineers to trainers and managers and produces about 34,000-40,000 barrels per day. The oil is sold at the wellhead for between $20 and $45 a barrel, earning the militants an average of $1.5m a day.”

Put together money, expertise and an Islamist-nihilist philosophy, and you have a weapon of huge destructive power, pointing at both the West and the East.

Second, Islamic State is funding a large increase in its cyber warfare capability. George Osborne, the British chancellor, said on Tuesday that “ISIS’ murderous brutality has a strong digital element. At a time when so many others are using the Internet to enhance freedom and give expression to liberal values and creativity, they are using it for evil.”
Determined cyber attacks mounted by experts in cryptography could disable health and power systems, air traffic controls, nuclear power stations and much else: the human costs could quickly run into the tens of thousands, if closely coordinated.

Third, ISIS, more than any other of the Islamist groups, has the power to attract large numbers of young Muslims — men and women — to come to Syria and Iraq to fight with them, or to remain in the countries in which they were born and become an enemy within these states. The glamour of death, murder and “revenge” seems a powerful draw — amplified, it seems, by the hours many of the young jihadists spend before a screen replete with images of “Crusaders” and Jews murdering Muslims. There is thus a potentially active network of supporters in most of the Western countries, either radicalized or the future targets of radicalization. And there is no way, outside of a locked-down authoritarian state, for all of them be monitored all the time.

The safeguards of a democratic society bounded by the rule of law place limits: a member of France’s internal secret service, the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Intérieure, told the Le Monde reporter Jacques Follorou that, “You have to prioritize, if the lads don’t commit any crime, its complicated to justify phone taps. You can’t put people on whom you have no evidence under 24-hour surveillance.”

This is not quite like any other war; nor can it be fought with previous wars’ weapons. Ranged against Islamic State is the military might of the United States, the European states and, now, Russia. Surely, with the military and intelligence technology at their disposal, they can destroy a force, which seeks to bring down 21st century civilization and substitute for it a mediaeval theocracy?

Yet working for the theocrats is the sluggish reluctance of the liberal, consumer societies of the West to gear up for war; to surround themselves with new security systems which will inhibit travel and entertainment; to lose or reduce the liberal safeguards which have been regarded as indispensable. Working for them, too, is a hatred so pure that young men can stride among the bodies of other young men, and women, and shoot those who moved — then blow themselves up. Working for them is the lack of our comprehension about how serious they appear to be.

This, I think, adds up to war: and an existential threat. A threat to our existence, our way of life.

Reuters Blog: http://reut.rs/1S43jjg

John Lloyd is Senior Reserach Fellow at the Reuters Institute.

« How Much Are You Worth?
Is the US Ready For Cyberwar? »

CyberSecurity Jobsite
Perimeter 81

Directory of Suppliers

IT Governance

IT Governance

IT Governance is a leading global provider of information security solutions. Download our free guide and find out how ISO 27001 can help protect your organisation's information.

The PC Support Group

The PC Support Group

A partnership with The PC Support Group delivers improved productivity, reduced costs and protects your business through exceptional IT, telecoms and cybersecurity services.

ON-DEMAND WEBINAR: What Is A Next-Generation Firewall (and why does it matter)?

ON-DEMAND WEBINAR: What Is A Next-Generation Firewall (and why does it matter)?

Watch this webinar to hear security experts from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and SANS break down the myths and realities of what an NGFW is, how to use one, and what it can do for your security posture.

Resecurity, Inc.

Resecurity, Inc.

Resecurity is a cybersecurity company that delivers a unified platform for endpoint protection, risk management, and cyber threat intelligence.

ManageEngine

ManageEngine

As the IT management division of Zoho Corporation, ManageEngine prioritizes flexible solutions that work for all businesses, regardless of size or budget.

Stormshield

Stormshield

Stormshield is a European leader in digital infrastructure security. We offer smart, connected solutions in order to anticipate attacks and protect digital infrastructures.

Cyber Security For Critical Assets (CS4CA)

Cyber Security For Critical Assets (CS4CA)

Cyber Security For Critical Assets is a global series of summits focusing on cyber security for critical infrastructure.

Cyber Future Foundation (CFF)

Cyber Future Foundation (CFF)

CFF was established to create a cyberspace where digital commerce and innovation can thrive based on trust and respect to individual privacy.

Korea Information Security Industry Association (KISIA)

Korea Information Security Industry Association (KISIA)

KISIA is a non-profit organization for the information security industry in Korea.

MailXaminer

MailXaminer

MailXaminer is an advance and powerful email investigation platform that scans digital data, performs analysis, reports on findings and preserves them in a court validated format.

Secarma

Secarma

Secarma provides penetration testing, security assessments, consultancy, and training services to ensure your digital infrastructure is secure from cybersecurity threats.

CYE

CYE

Utilizing data, numbers, and facts, CYE helps security leaders know what business assets are at risk and execute cost-effective remediation projects for optimal risk prevention.

Hunton Andrews Kurth

Hunton Andrews Kurth

Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP serves clients across a broad range of complex transactional, litigation and regulatory matters. Practice areas include Privacy and Cybersecurity.

Cybots

Cybots

Cybots is a multinational cyber defence brand founded in Singapore in 2018 to help organizations stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated threats from cyber criminals.

Nanitor

Nanitor

Nanitor is a powerful cybersecurity management platform focusing on hardening security fundamentals across your global IT infrastructure.

Allurity

Allurity

Allurity is a group of tech-enabled cybersecurity service providers, comprised of best-in-class experts with a common mission to enable a safe digital world.

M.Tech

M.Tech

M.Tech is a leading cyber security and network performance solutions provider. We work with leading vendors to bring optimal solutions to the market through a channel of reseller partners.

Finlaw Associates

Finlaw Associates

Finlaw Associates is a trusted cybercrime law firm providing a wide range of taxation, legal, advisory and regulatory services to the financial, commercial and industrial communities.

DataPatrol

DataPatrol

DataPatrol is a software company, specialized in providing Security and Privacy of company’s data and information in an evolved way.

Odaseva

Odaseva

Odaseva delivers the strongest data security solution for enterprises running on Salesforce, safeguarding confidentiality and integrity of critical business information.

ReformIT

ReformIT

ReformIT is a Managed IT Service and Security provider with many years experience helping companies find the right IT solutions to meet the needs of their businesses.