DARPA Wants AI To Reveal Adversaries' True Intentions

From eastern Europe to southern Iraq, the US military faces an ancient but also current difficult problem: Adversaries who pretending to be someone they’re not. 

A new program from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency seeks to apply artificial intelligence to detect and understand how adversaries are using sneaky tactics to create chaos, undermine governments, spread foreign influence and sow discord.

This activity, hostile action that falls short of, but often precedes, violence, is sometimes referred to as gray zone warfare, the ‘zone’ being a sort of liminal state in between peace and war. The actors that work in it are difficult to identify and their aims hard to predict, by design.

“We’re looking at the problem from two perspectives: Trying to determine what the adversary is trying to do, his intent; and once we understand that or have a better understanding of it, then identify how he’s going to carry out his plans — what the timing will be, and what actors will be used,” said DARPA program manager Fotis Barlos.

Dubbed COMPASS, the new program will “leverage advanced artificial intelligence technologies, game theory, and modeling and estimation to both identify stimuli that yield the most information about an adversary’s intentions, and provide decision makers high-fidelity intelligence on how to respond, with positive and negative tradeoffs for each course of action,” according to DARPA.

Teaching software to understand and interpret human intention, a task sometimes called “plan recognition”, has been a subject of scholarship since at least a 1978 paper by Rutgers University researchers who sought to understand whether computer programs might be able to anticipate human intentions within rule-based environments like chess.

Since then, the science of plan recognition has advanced as quickly as the spread of computers and the internet, because all three are intimately linked.

From Amazon to Google to Facebook, the world’s top tech companies are pouring money into probabilistic modeling of user behavior, as part of a constant race to keep from losing users to sites that can better predict what they want. 
A user’s every click, “like,” and even period of inactivity adds to the companies’ almost unimaginably large sets, and new machine learning and statistical techniques (especially involving Bayesian reasoning) make it easier than ever to use the information to predict what a given user will do next on a given site. 

Among these tools is Google’s Activity Recognition library, which helps app developers imbue their software with a better sense of what the user is doing.

But inferring a user’s next Amazon purchase (based on data that user has volunteered about previous choices, likes, etc.) is altogether different from predicting how an adversary intends to engage in political or unconventional warfare. So the COMPASS program seeks to use video, text, and other pieces of intelligence that are a lot harder to get than shopping-cart data.

The program aligns well with the needs of the Special Operations Forces community in particular. Gen. Raymond “Tony” Thomas, the head of US Special Operations Command, has said that he’s interested in deploying forces to places before there’s a war to fight. Thomas has discussed his desire to apply artificial intelligence, including neural nets and deep learning techniques, to get “left of bang.”

Unlike shopping, the analytical tricks that apply to one gray-zone adversary won’t work on another. “History has shown that no two [unconventional warfare] situations or solutions are identical, thus rendering cookie-cutter responses not only meaningless but also often counterproductive,” wrote Gen. Joseph Votel, who leads US Central Command, in his seminal 2016 treatise on gray zone warfare.

As practiced by Amazon and others within the domain of online shopping, “plan recognition” at scale is very cookie-cutter.  If COMPASS succeeds, it will have to apply game theory and big data to behavior prediction in ways that Silicon Valley has never attempted.

It will have to do so repeatedly, in the face of varied and constantly morphing adversaries looking to keep as much of their activity hidden as possible. 

DefenseOne

You Might Also Read: 

The Pentagon Puts Google’s AI To Use:

AI Is Replacing Human Made Decisions:
 

 

« Healthcare Security Should Use More Sophisticated Tools
Snowden Says Social Media Is Surveillance 'Rebranded' »

ManageEngine
CyberSecurity Jobsite
Check Point

Directory of Suppliers

Clayden Law

Clayden Law

Clayden Law advise global businesses that buy and sell technology products and services. We are experts in information technology, data privacy and cybersecurity law.

The PC Support Group

The PC Support Group

A partnership with The PC Support Group delivers improved productivity, reduced costs and protects your business through exceptional IT, telecoms and cybersecurity services.

BackupVault

BackupVault

BackupVault is a leading provider of automatic cloud backup and critical data protection against ransomware, insider attacks and hackers for businesses and organisations worldwide.

Authentic8

Authentic8

Authentic8 transforms how organizations secure and control the use of the web with Silo, its patented cloud browser.

MIRACL

MIRACL

MIRACL provides the world’s only single step Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) which can replace passwords on 100% of mobiles, desktops or even Smart TVs.

Outpost24

Outpost24

Outpost24 provides easy to deploy and intuitive solutions to continuously identify, remediate and mitigate vulnerabilities in your network.

Anomali

Anomali

Anomali delivers intelligence-driven cybersecurity solutions to enhance threat visibility, automate threat processing and detection, and accelerate threat investigation, response, and remediation.

ICS2

ICS2

ICS² is the first cyber security company focusing on protecting the control system of power, oil, gas, and petrochemicals plants.

Sage Designs

Sage Designs

Sage Designs is a provider of SCADA, Security & Industrial Automation products and training programs.

Metro Systems

Metro Systems

Metro Systems offer fully integrated IT solutions & services covering Digital Transformation, Digital Infrastructure, Cyber Security and Training.

Exeon Analytics

Exeon Analytics

Exeon Analytics is a Swiss cyber security company that is specialized in detecting hidden data breaches and advanced cyber attacks.

Vanbreda

Vanbreda

Vanbreda Risk & Benefits is the largest independent insurance broker and risk consultant in Belgium and the leading insurance partner in the Benelux.

Griffiss Institute (GI)

Griffiss Institute (GI)

GI's primary role is to advocate and facilitate the co-operation of private industry, academia, and the Air Force Research Laboratory in developing solutions to critical cyber security problems.

Viakoo

Viakoo

Viakoo is an Enterprise IoT Applications Management company providing performance, security, and compliance. Viakoo enables you to be proactive in maintaining cyber hygiene and protecting your network

Synamic Technologies

Synamic Technologies

Synamic Technologies was founded in 2018 as a start-up to automate cyber security processes. Our CISOSCOPE product automates vulnerability management, risk management and compliance.

Redbot Security

Redbot Security

Redbot Security provides industry leading manual penetration testing. Protecting critical systems and data - red team attack and breach simulations, (OT) critical infrastructure testing.

CatchProbe Intelligence Technologies

CatchProbe Intelligence Technologies

CatchProbe provides actionable web intelligence, OSINT, deception systems, threat intelligence, and digital crime analytics solutions and products through an AI-Driven intelligence platform.

PROVINTELL Cyber Security

PROVINTELL Cyber Security

PROVINTELL is a Managed Security Service Provider (MSSP) specialising in Next-Gen Cyber Defense and Response to detect and respond to threats.

12Port

12Port

12Port network security solutions help companies tackle modern cybersecurity threats cost-effectively while implementing zero-trust architectures.

S4E (Security for Everyone)

S4E (Security for Everyone)

At S4E.io, our mission is to democratize digital security, making it accessible, simple, and effective for individuals and businesses of all sizes.

Sphinx

Sphinx

Sphinx provide advanced security consulting services and cyber solutions to federal and private industry.