Artificial Intelligence: Threats & Opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly affecting our lives even though most people don’t yet realise the effects and is predicted to comprise 16 percent, or around $13 trillion, by 2030 to the global economic output. This means an annual productivity growth of about 1.2 percent between now and 2030, according to a Report by the McKinsey Global Institute on the impact of AI on the world economy.

“If delivered, this impact would compare well with that of other general-purpose technologies through history... Consider, for instance, that the introduction of steam engines during the 1800s boosted labor productivity by an estimated 0.3 percent a year, the impact from robots during the 1990s around 0.4 percent, and the spread of IT during the 2000s 0.6 percent.” McKinsey say.

President Vladimir Putin has warned Russians that the country that leads in technologies using AI will dominate the globe, although Russia is a minor player and the race seems now to be mainly between the United States, China and the European Union (EU). EU countries are already strong in digital industry and business-to-business applications and with a high-quality digital infrastructure and a regulatory framework that protects privacy and freedom of speech, the EU could grow to be a leader in the AI economy.  

AI Benefits  

AI could help people with improved health care, safer cars and other transport systems, tailored, cheaper and longer-lasting products and services. It can also facilitate access to information, education and training.  The need for distance learning became more important because of the Covid. AI can also make workplace safer as robots can be used for dangerous parts of jobs, and open new job positions as AI-driven industries grow and change.

AI Opportunities for Businesses & Public Services

AI will create a new generation of products and services, including in sectors where European companies already have strong positions: green and circular economy, machinery, farming, healthcare, fashion, tourism. It can boost sales, improve machine maintenance, increase production output and quality, improve customer service, as well as save energy. AI used in public services can reduce costs and offer new possibilities in public transport, education, energy and waste management and could also improve the sustainability of products. In this way AI could contribute to achieving the goals of the EU Green Deal.  

Improving Democracy

Democracy could be made stronger by using data-based scrutiny, preventing fake news and cyber-attacks and ensuring access to quality information. AI could also support diversity and openness, for example by mitigating the possibility of prejudice in hiring decisions and using analytical data instead.

AI Security 

AI is predicted to be used more in crime prevention and the criminal justice system, as massive data sets could be processed faster, prisoner flight risks assessed more accurately, crime or even terrorist attacks predicted and prevented. It is already used by online platforms to detect and react to unlawful and inappropriate online behaviour.In military matters, AI can be used for defence and attack strategies in hacking and phishing or to target key systems in cyber warfare, while the key advantage of autonomous weapon systems is the potential to engage in armed conflict with the reduced risk of physical harm.

AI Threats 

The increasing reliance on AI systems also poses potential risks. The implications of having a small handful of countries controlling cutting edge AI in the future are profound. It is also certain that leading companies in these countries will achieve and maintain an even more noteworthy lead in the global economic arena, granting them a substantial competitive advantage.  The militaries of these countries would also almost certainly become primary beneficiaries of the AI technologies of the future, spurring a global race for superior autonomous weaponry and propelling the world toward dangerous new means of waging war.

Who Is Responsible For Damage Caused By AI?

An important challenge is to determine who is responsible for damage caused by an AI-operated device or service: in an accident involving a self-driving car. Should the damage be covered by the owner, the car manufacturer or the programmer?
If the producer was absolutely free of accountability, there might be no incentive to provide good product or service and it could damage people’s trust in the technology; but regulations could also be too strict and stifle innovation.

AI Threatens Democracy

The results that AI produces depend on how it is designed and what data it uses. Both design and data can be intentionally or unintentionally biased. For example, some important aspects of an issue might not be programmed into the algorithm or might be programmed to reflect and replicate structural biases. In addition, the use of numbers to represent complex social reality could make the AI seem factual and precise when it isn’t. 

AI could lead to decisions influenced by data on ethnicity, sex, age when hiring or firing, offering loans, or even in criminal proceedings.

AI could severely affect the right to privacy and data protection. It can be for example used in face recognition equipment or for online tracking and profiling of individuals. In addition, AI enables merging pieces of information a person has given into new data, which can lead to results the person would not expect. It can also present a threat to democracy; AI has already been blamed for creating online echo chambers based on a person's previous online behaviour, displaying only content a person would like, instead of creating an environment for pluralistic, equally accessible and inclusive public debate. 

It can even be used to create extremely realistic fake video, audio and images, known as deepfakes, which can present financial risks, harm reputation, and challenge decision making. All of this could lead to separation and polarisation in the public sphere and manipulate elections. AI could also play a role in harming freedom of assembly and protest as it could track and profile individuals linked to certain beliefs or actions.

AI’s Impact On Jobs 

Use of AI in the workplace is expected to result in the elimination of a large number of jobs. 
Although AI is also expected to create and make better jobs, education and training will have a crucial role in preventing long-term unemployment and ensure a skilled workforce.

Conclusion

The world cannot afford to simply rely on nature to take its course, or for the world’s governments and corporations to address critical issues associated with governance, regulation, and rule of law regarding AI when it might be deemed convenient to them. AI systems keep getting more accurate and soon the predictive security technology will be broadly available, inexpensive, and easy to set up.  There are already vendors offering this as a service, where they correlate internal company data with external sources to predict human behavior, and this technology isn't going away.

AI systems will have a very important role to play in helping to steer the future course of the new global economy. It is therefore incumbent that organisations and governments review and create strategies to address how best to craft, and control, our collective AI future through enhanced dialogue, resource allocation, and action.

Europarl:          Wall Street Journal:        Brookings Institute:      UN University:

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